Fold Equity Explained
- Poker Term Fold Equity Calculator
- Poker Term Fold Equity Definition
- Poker Term Fold Equity Formula
- Poker Term Fold Equity Fund
If you have a 50% chance to win the hand, but betting will cause your opponent to fold 20% of the time, your overall poker equity increases:
No bet: 50% equity
Fold Equity: The implied equity that a player can get by making a bet with the aim of getting an opponent to fold. If a player has a small stack and you raise enough to cover her she is force to fold unless she’s willing to play for her entire stack. Four of a Kind: Four of the same ranked cards. Fold Equity Explained. If you have a 50% chance to win the hand, but betting will cause your opponent to fold 20% of the time, your overall poker equity increases: No bet: 50% equity. Bet: 50% + (0.2. 50%) = 60% equity. The size of the bet and the odds your opponent will fold will determine if this increase in equity is profitable in the long run.
Bet: 50% + (0.2 * 50%) = 60% equity
The size of the bet and the odds your opponent will fold will determine if this increase in equity is profitable in the long run.
Fold equity can become important in short stack situations in a no-limit holdem tournament. A basic example of fold equity is when a player pushes with a draw and allows himself to win one of two ways:
- He can hit his hand
- He can force the other player(s) to fold
In words the fold equity formula would read:
Our win odds + (percentage of times villain x his win odds)
Fold Equity Examples
Example 1
We hold {Ac) K♣ on a Q♠3♦9♥ flop on Americas Cardroom. For this example let’s assume we know villain is holding exactly 2♥2♠. We also know that this villain is going to fold the flop 67% of the time.
We have 28.2% win odds, the villain folds 67% of the time, and his win odds are 71.7%
28.2 + .67 (71.7) = 76.2% of winning
As you can see by betting we have almost tripled our odds of winning.
Example 2
Another way we can look at fold equity is how much is in the pot and our odds of winning by using a fold equity calculator. There are many fold equity calculators online, but most require four pieces of information:
Poker Term Fold Equity Calculator
- The effective stack size
- Our estimated equity
- Pot size
- How big of a bet are we making
For example, we are playing in a .25/.50 no limit game on PaddyPower. We raise in the cutoff with A♦6♦ to $1.20. A tight player on the button 3-bets to $3.20, we call $2.
The flop comes 2♦6♠9♦ with $7 in the pot.
We check and the button bets $4.60, making the pot $11.60.
Our information looks like this:
- Effective stack size: $21.70
- Estimated Equity: 43% (if the tight 3-bettor has AA)
- Pot Size: $11.60
- Our all-in bet size: $17.10
Plugging those numbers into the calculator we must believe the 3-bettor will fold more than 32% of the time for this to be +EV.
Fold Equity Chart
The chart below shows how much of a fold percentage you must have for having neutral EV.
A higher percentage than what is shown would be +EV, lower would be –EV.
Understanding Fold Equity Calculations
If we run the above hand 3 times, we can see why he needs to fold more than 32%.
When he will folds we win the pot of $11.60, of which we invested $3.20. This gives us a positive return of +$8.40.
Two times he will call making the pot $50.40, which we will win 43% of the time. We invested $24.90 and have $21.67 of equity, mean we lose $3.23 each time he calls.
How much will we win or lose based on how often he calls?
Villain Folds 50% of the time -- 1 fold (+$8.40): 1 call (-$3.23) = +$5.17
Villain Folds 33% of the time -- 1 fold (+$8.40): 2 calls (-$6.46) = +$1.94
Villain Folds 25% of the time -- 1 fold (+$8.40): 3 calls (-$9.69) = -$1.09
Equity calculations are paramount without player reads on Bovada's anonymous tables. |
Fold Equity Explained
If you have a 50% chance to win the hand, but betting will cause your opponent to fold 20% of the time, your overall poker equity increases:
No bet: 50% equity
Bet: 50% + (0.2 * 50%) = 60% equity
The size of the bet and the odds your opponent will fold will determine if this increase in equity is profitable in the long run.
Fold equity can become important in short stack situations in a no-limit holdem tournament. A basic example of fold equity is when a player pushes with a draw and allows himself to win one of two ways:
- He can hit his hand
- He can force the other player(s) to fold
In words the fold equity formula would read:
Our win odds + (percentage of times villain x his win odds)
Fold Equity Examples
Example 1
We hold {Ac) K♣ on a Q♠3♦9♥ flop on Americas Cardroom. For this example let’s assume we know villain is holding exactly 2♥2♠. We also know that this villain is going to fold the flop 67% of the time.
We have 28.2% win odds, the villain folds 67% of the time, and his win odds are 71.7%
28.2 + .67 (71.7) = 76.2% of winning
As you can see by betting we have almost tripled our odds of winning.
Example 2
Another way we can look at fold equity is how much is in the pot and our odds of winning by using a fold equity calculator. There are many fold equity calculators online, but most require four pieces of information:
- The effective stack size
- Our estimated equity
- Pot size
- How big of a bet are we making
For example, we are playing in a .25/.50 no limit game on PaddyPower. We raise in the cutoff with A♦6♦ to $1.20. A tight player on the button 3-bets to $3.20, we call $2.
The flop comes 2♦6♠9♦ with $7 in the pot.
We check and the button bets $4.60, making the pot $11.60.
Our information looks like this:
- Effective stack size: $21.70
- Estimated Equity: 43% (if the tight 3-bettor has AA)
- Pot Size: $11.60
- Our all-in bet size: $17.10
Plugging those numbers into the calculator we must believe the 3-bettor will fold more than 32% of the time for this to be +EV.
Fold Equity Chart
The chart below shows how much of a fold percentage you must have for having neutral EV.
A higher percentage than what is shown would be +EV, lower would be –EV.
Understanding Fold Equity Calculations
If we run the above hand 3 times, we can see why he needs to fold more than 32%.
When he will folds we win the pot of $11.60, of which we invested $3.20. This gives us a positive return of +$8.40.
Two times he will call making the pot $50.40, which we will win 43% of the time. We invested $24.90 and have $21.67 of equity, mean we lose $3.23 each time he calls.
Poker Term Fold Equity Definition
How much will we win or lose based on how often he calls?
Villain Folds 50% of the time -- 1 fold (+$8.40): 1 call (-$3.23) = +$5.17
Villain Folds 33% of the time -- 1 fold (+$8.40): 2 calls (-$6.46) = +$1.94
Poker Term Fold Equity Formula
Villain Folds 25% of the time -- 1 fold (+$8.40): 3 calls (-$9.69) = -$1.09
Poker Term Fold Equity Fund
Equity calculations are paramount without player reads on Bovada's anonymous tables. |